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Restaurant Hospitality
Restaurant industry predictions: What 2021 will bring in terms of food, drinks, fine-dining and more in the wake of COVID
RH Staff Dec 10, 2020

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Frozen products will become a hot sell
LightFieldStudios/istock/getty images plus

Frozen food products have enjoyed new-found appeal in the COVID-19 pandemic, and that is likely to continue into the new year.

 

As restaurant operations have closed, reopened and then face restrictions anew amid virus surges, operators have found frozen products last much longer and reduce waste as they cope with the yo-yoing of their operations.

 

And while ghost kitchens and smaller operators find stability in frozen products, from proteins to vegetables, larger-scale companies have taken notice.

 

“We use fresh — rarely frozen — wings,” said Charlie Morrison, CEO and chairman of Dallas-based Wingstop Inc., on a November earnings call. “Only during certain cyclical times of the year will we bring those in.

“The impact it’s having on us,” he said, “is more about what it does to the price of chicken wings because many of these new and/or emerging competitors or folks that have sold them before are really buying up all the frozen product that's in the market.”

Expect to see more long-term storage items on all menus.

—Ron Ruggless

The rules change for fine dining
Bulrush

With a complete loss of seating at restaurants indoors for several months this past year, fine-dining restaurants that relied on intimate settings and personalized, expensive experiences have been left empty with no choice but to change or close.

In 2021, fine-dining operators will continue to step away from the traditional model.

Restaurants that never had to-go meals like Canalis, Alinea and more have turned their experiential menus into off-premise adventures.

Thomas Keller’s French Laundry re-opened with just three tables — and a higher price tag.

In cities like Los Angeles, restaurants pooled their efforts to create a drive-thru 10-course meal. And in St. Louis, the restaurant Bulrush offered a drive-thru tasting menu.

In Chicago, Noah Sandoval (Oriole, Kumiko, Kikko) is winning raves for selling pizza from the custom back-door takeout window at a hole-in-the-wall music venue.

–Holly Petre

Food choices will seek to better the planet
jOSH EDELSON/AFP via Getty Images

Consumers have long made food choices based on personal values to some degree, but after a disastrous 2020 filled with media images of super storms, flooding and wildfires, one issue comes to the forefront: Climate change.

According to recent research by Datassential, climate change is now the third most-important socio-political issue on consumers’ minds, after healthcare and the economy, with 38% of survey respondents ranking it among top concerns. The issue is more often being referred to as a climate “crisis,” and experts say it’s only going to get worse.

Restaurants are taking note with creative labeling of items on their menu with a low carbon footprint. Panera and Chipotle Mexican Grill, for example, are giving guests guidance on dishes on their respective menus that are better for the planet.

Panera partnered with the World Resources Institute to label ingredients with a “Cool Food Meals” badge — a tool available to all restaurants. Burger King is testing lower-carbon-footprint beef. And Starbucks pledged to be “resource positive,” meaning it would put more resources into the environment than it takes out, reducing the chain’s water, waste and carbon emissions by 2030 with moves like adding more plant-based beverages to the menu.

Independent restaurants, meanwhile, will continue to lead the way with efforts like composting, supporting farmers who practice regenerative agriculture and waste reduction, with organizations like ZeroFoodPrint helping consumers find restaurants that care about the planet.

—Lisa Jennings

The plant-based milk space will add froth
Not milk

While 2019 and 2020 were the years of the plant-based proteins — with Impossible and Beyond burgers available on menus across the country — the “next big thing” in vegan substitutes will come in liquid form.

During the pandemic, the run on oat milk and other milk alternatives proved demand for non-dairy options. That space will get even hotter, with a plethora of up-and-coming milks that are not milk expected to saturate menus.

While chain restaurants have already been ramping up their plant-based milk options — from Starbucks’ new non-dairy cold brew drinks and cold foam toppers to New York City-based casual burger chain Bareburger’s line of limited-time-offer hemp-based milkshakes — independent and smaller brands are soon to follow. Another New York City-based burger chain, 15-unit Black Tap Craft Burgers & Beer, known as the originator of the “freakshake,” announced its first-ever vegan milkshake in January made with soymilk.

Impossible Foods is rumored to be diversifying its lineup with a plant-based milk product that is still in development. Latin American food tech startup NotCo released its product NotMilk to the U.S. in November.

NotMilk is designed to look, smell and taste like cow’s milk but is made from nuts, seeds and grains. It’s not available for foodservice yet, but it is in Whole Foods Markets.

Expect to see more of these new animal-free milk products in 2021 and beyond as demand grows for plant-based alternatives.

—Joanna Fantozzi

The proliferation of virtual brands
Crave Hospitality Group

Even before the pandemic, restaurants were creating new brands available for delivery-only, with only a digital presence to mark their existence.

That trend has accelerated big time in 2020 and will gain strength in 2021 as operators innovate and find ways to grab the attention of consumers. With both chains and independents tapping their underutilized kitchens to grow new delivery-only menus, the virtual restaurant brand space could become the next growth segment within the industry.

More specialists are jumping into the game, from Denver-based Nextbite (HotBox By Wiz) to Virtual Dining Concepts (Tyga Bites) with celebrity influencers behind them. Ghost kitchen operators like Kitchen United and Zuul continue to grow, as newcomers like Crave Hospitality Group, which is partnering with chef-operators like Michael Mina and Ayesha Curry (International Smoke) and Tony Gemignani (Tony G’s Pizzeria), plan a national network of host kitchens delivering a virtual food hall of sorts with specialized native delivery.

Most of the large casual-dining chains are also leaning into virtual brands, including Brinker International (It’s Just Wings), Applebee’s (Neighborhood Wings) and Bloomin’ Brands Inc. (Tender Shack). For now, it’s mostly chicken wings but more brands are on the horizon.

– Lisa Jennings

Consumer packaged goods from independent restaurants
Momofuku Group

If the pandemic has taught restaurant operators anything — and it has taught them a lot — it’s that many of them are capable of running a successful business without relying on their dining rooms. For some of them, in 2021 that will mean trying their hands at larger-scale retail, having their sauces and spice blends manufactured at a larger scale and selling them via mail order or in local stores.

High-profile restaurants such as Rick Bayless’s Frontera Grill and the restaurants of Jean-Georges Vongerichten and Wolfgang Puck have been doing this for years, but it will likely accelerate next year.

Momofuku Group founder David Chang and CEO Marguerite Mariscal have said consumer packaged goods, such as the seasoned salts they launched in 2019, could be an important source of income.

Momofuku is also selling baseball caps, and fast-casual Native American concept Tocabe, in Denver, is selling t-shirts and is working on selling frozen meals via mail order. Founder Ben Jacobs also sees packaged goods as a way to fulfill his mission of amplifying native voices by packaging goods such as heirloom beans produced by native farmers.

—Bret Thorn

No touching
Gotab

The pandemic accelerated pre-existing restaurant technology trends such as online ordering and integrated third-party delivery for many independent restaurants that had long ignored their digital footprint. With dine-in allowed in many U.S. jurisdictions, contactless ordering and payment solutions have become crucial tools for restaurants and diners. Federal, state and local health authorities recommend giving diners these touch-free tools to help curb the spread of the coronavirus.

But these solutions are not temporary.  Diners are adapting to the frictionless payments made by using QR codes and SMS links to process checks using mobile devices. No more waiting for a distracted server to process your credit card.

There’s no turning back. This pandemic trend is here to stay. It will likely expand to include loyalty programs that allow restaurant owners to obtain valuable consumer data, while guests earn rewards. For limited-service brands, facial recognition technology can be used for touchless payments at kiosks.

– Nancy Luna

Genuinely spicy food
Dunkin’

When Dunkin’ is selling doughnuts with icing laced with ghost peppers and cayenne that’s spicy enough to make some people’s ears ring, you know that really spicy food has truly gone mainstream.

Nashville hot chicken, which was invented by an angry woman who doused fried chicken in very spicy oil in order to punish her husband (she failed; he loved it), is one of the trendiest menu items out there, appearing on pizza and sandwiches, in tacos and more.

Chile crisp, a Chinese condiment of oil with crunchy bits of chile, shallot and garlic, has exploded onto the retail scene — another sign that consumers are no longer messing around when they say they want their food to be spicy.

Younger Americans’ growing penchant for spicy food is well documented, as is the fact that, as people get older, their taste buds weaken. Aging Baby Boomers’ desire to excite their numbed palates, combined with their grandchildren’s sense of culinary adventure, will pave the way for food that really brings the heat.

—Bret Thorn

Embracing the great outdoors and pedestrian-friendly zones
Parx Casino

Remember, when the best seat in the house was a banquette overlooking the exhibition kitchen? The intimate 10-seat chef’s table? The corner bar seat during a crowded happy hour?

Now that “best seat” is outside.

As we desperately try to put 2020 behind us and look ahead, there are several pandemic-related dining trends that will linger into 2021 including the expansion of outdoor dining and indoor/outdoor spaces. Many cities have temporarily turned their downtown streets into pedestrian-only zones to give struggling restaurants more space for outside dining. Some are making it permanent, like Cincinnati.

Emerging brands are adapting designs to include more patio seating.  San Diego-based fast-casual chain The Crack Shack, for example, which is expanding in 2021 with backing from the growth fund Savory, said it will lean into outdoor seating and reduce indoor capacity from 120 to about 80 seats.

– Nancy Luna

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